Oct 3, 2018

NFL Week 5 Predictions

Bengals' WR AJ Green after the game winning TD vs. Faclons via Las Vegas Review Journal

Week four of the NFL season provided a good indication of who the real contenders are in 2018.

The Bengals and Falcons battled it out till the last seconds, in what become the best game of the week. The Patriots proved they aren't going anywhere with a dominating 31-point victory over Miami while the Rams and Chiefs have staked claim to the top of their respected conferences.

The standings are still questionable with many divisions having no true leader but playoff caliber teams will begin to separate themselves from the rest in week five. Two of those teams meet this week as the high powered Chiefs offense faces off against the "Sacksonville" Jaguars.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS vs. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Chiefs' WR Tyreek Hill vs. Jaguars' CB Jalen Ramsey (no copyright intended)

Chiefs' quarterback Patrick Mahomes has been the MVP of the 2018 season so far, leading the NFL in touchdown passes with eight and ranking second in QBR. Mahomes has been a gunslinger and FS1's Colin Cowherd has even gone so far to say, "I'd take [Mahomes] over Brett Favre". I am not sure about that but Mahomes has been great and this week he will face his toughest competition yet.

The Jacksonville Jaguars are the number one ranked defense in the entire NFL. The Jags do not rank within the top ten in regards to sacks and interceptions but do rank highly in the most important category... points.

The Jaguars do not allow other teams to score, holding opponents to an average of 14 points per game. In fact, Jacksonville has not allowed more than 20 points in a game through the first four weeks of 2018. The black and teal has also been great at shutting down quarterbacks limiting opposing QB's to just over 150 yards per game.

Can "Sacksonville" keep up the pace and shut down Mahomes?

Jacksonville has given me every reason to believe they can shut down Mahomes. A star player at every position and arguably the best secondary in football is the correct formula to defeating the league's most prolific offense. Even if Jacksonville is unable to slow down Mahomes, the Chiefs' defense is atrocious and will give the Jaguars countless opportunities to remain in the game.

The Jaguars offense will be missing a key piece as running back Leonard Fournette has been ruled out with a hamstring injury. T.J Yeldon will serve as the primary back this week and possess the ability to gash defenses for big gains if he can find a lane. Yeldon will find those lanes this Sunday. Kansas City are dead last in stopping the run giving up 5.7 yards per attempt.

Everything this Sunday leans in the Jaguars favor. No team is better than Jacksonville on the defensive side of the ball while Kansas City's identity is solely on offense.

Patrick Mahomes, Kareem Hunt, and Tyreek Hill combine for the league's highest scoring offense but this Sunday will be the end of a 5-0 run to start 2018.

Blake Bortles may not be the flashiest quarterback, all he needs to be is consistent. The Central Florida product has been just that. Bortles has thrown seven touchdowns along with three interceptions which puts him next to names like Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson. Not to mention Bortles plays better on grass fields having a 34 point higher QBR and a 13 point higher completion percentage.

Bortles is the x-factor for the Jaguars this week and the statistics prove he deserves respect. Bortles and the Jaguars will leave Arrowhead Stadium with a win and shatter the Chiefs hopes of remaining undefeated.

Final Score: Jaguars 28, Chiefs 23