Dec 27, 2018

NFL Week 17 Predictions

Updated: Jan 5, 2019

The NFL is one week away from the conclusion of the 2018 regular season, and playoff seeding has yet to be finalized.

Week 16 saw the Philadelphia Eagles keep their playoff hopes alive with a win against the Houston Texans with some help from Nick Foles. The Titans and Colts both stayed in the hunt for a Wild Card spot in the AFC while the Vikings held onto the sixth seed in the NFC by defeating the Lions.

The marquee game of week 16 saw the Steelers sabotage themselves with a last minute fumble versus the Saints. The fumble not only cost the Steelers the win but also bumped Pittsburgh from the fourth seed to having just an 18.7 percent of making the playoffs, according to theactionnetwork.com.

Steelers' receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster after the game losing fumble (via Bleacher Report)

For Pittsburgh to make the playoffs, they will have to win at home against the Bengals and need the Browns to upset the Ravens. The likelihood Pittsburgh defeats the 6-9 Bengals are high but Cleveland playing spoiler is a tougher task.

CLEVELAND BROWNS VS BALTIMORE RAVENS

Rookie quarterbacks Baker Mayfield and Lamar Jackson (via NFL)

Everything is on the line this week for the Cleveland Browns and Baltimore Ravens. The Browns, who are systematically eliminated from the playoffs, are looking for their first winning season since 2007. The Ravens are fighting for a playoff birth and a chance for home-field advantage in the first round.

The matchup is also the first meeting between rookie quarterbacks Baker Mayfield and Lamar Jackson. Mayfield has done the unthinkable and turned the Browns into a formidable foe in the AFC North. Living up to the hype of the number one overall pick, Mayfield has placed himself at the top of the rookie of the year conversation.

Jackson has exploded out of the gate for Ravens since being named a starter in week 11. Running all over opposing defenses, Jackson has totaled 466 yards and two touchdowns as a runner. Through the air, Jackson struggled early but has come on as of late. Jackson has not thrown an interception in the last four weeks and has balanced the dual-threat archetype to perfection leading the Ravens to a 5-1 record.

The battle of the rookie quarterbacks is the headline of the Browns and Ravens matchup, but the game will be won in the trenches.

The Cleveland Browns and Baltimore Ravens both currently rank inside the top ten in rushing defense with the latter listed number two overall. Lamar Jackson has opened the Ravens offense up and helped Baltimore climb the ladder with a league-leading 33.3 attempts per game. The Ravens running game makes up nearly half of their offensive plays making room for the play action pass.

Baltimore's weakness is, by far, the passing game but the expert play calling by Head Coach John Harbaugh has allowed Jackson to use his arm as the last resort. Jackson's first reaction is to run which keeps defenses on their toes and, although he completes a second worst 58.2 percent of his passes, Jackson has found a way to lead Baltimore to victory.

His opponent, the delightfully boastful Baker Mayfield has shined all season as the Browns quarterback. Enough cannot be said about Mayfield. He has taken a Cleveland team that was 0-16 last reason and led them to a 7-7-1 season after losing his head coach, offensive coordinator and replacing veteran Tyrod Taylor during week three.

Mayfield's tremendous season can be summed up in one tweet.

Mayfield has proven throughout his rookie campaign he can lead an NFL team and arguably the worst franchise in football to a winning season. He has put himself next names such as Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck in route to one of the greatest seasons ever from a rookie quarterback.

Nick Chubb, another 2018 draft product, has assisted Mayfield in his dominance. Coming out of Georgia, the expectations for Chubb were mediocre after a knee injury cost him the 2015 season while a member of the Bulldogs. Chubb has dispersed any doubt he can be a pro level running back with a Browns' rookie record of 972 yards-surpassing the great Jim Brown.

Over the last two seasons, Cleveland has found the cornerstones of their future with former number one overall picks Myles Garrett and Baker Mayfield and complementary players such as Denzel Ward and Nick Chubb. Cleveland's roster may be young, but they do not lack confidence.

The Browns currently rank 14th in total offense including the 14th ranked passing offense and ninth-ranked rushing offense. A large part of Cleveland's success is due to the offensive line and red zone efficiency.

The Browns sit sixth with a 67.4 percent in NFL red zone scoring percentages according to teamrankings.com. Cleveland even plays better on the road with four percent increase ticking upwards of 71 percent inside the 20-yard line.

Ravens defense after an 11-sack performance (via Ebony Bird)

The Ravens counter with the number one ranked defense in the NFL allowing the least amount of yards (284.1), points allowed (17.5) as well as yards per play (4.6) and lowest completion percentage (58.7). The Raves also rank sixth in sacks (43). An easy way to describe the Ravens defense is elite and the best in football.

The Ravens defense allows 17.5 points per game but their offense only average 24.2. A touchdown difference may seem like enough to get a win but Cleveland has matched Baltimore's offensive productivity. Since week 14, the Browns and Ravens average nearly the same amount of points with the Browns holding a one-point advantage.

The Browns season is over but with a point to prove and pride on the line, anything is possible.

Verdict:

The Baltimore Ravens come into Sunday's matchup with their playoff hopes on the line. In desperate need of a win, expect the Ravens to continue to do what they do best-run the ball and win the time of possession battle.

The Ravens have attacked every team with the same strategy and have come out the victor in five of the six since Lamar Jackson took over as the starting quarterback. Running through the trenches and just under 34 times a game, the Ravens will run the football and eat time off the clock. Baltimore currently leads the NFL with 32:03-time possession; Cleveland ranks 25th.

Two different styles of offense will go head-to-head on Sunday but only one will face an elite defense. Baker Mayfield can make any play he wants and has the ability to lead the Browns to victory against any team but history is not on Mayfield's side.

The Brows have played a top ten defense four times this year-Ravens, Chargers and Steelers twice. Cleveland has come out victorious one of those games-their opponent being the Ravens with Joe Flacco as the starting quarterback.

The Browns record in those games is 1-2-1 and have averaged 16.2 points while their defense allows 25 points. The averages similar to the Ravens' offense and defenses difference could the warning sign for the Browns and the Steelers playoff hopes.

The Browns and Baker Mayfield posses all the confidence needed to defeat the Ravens, having done so once already this season. That Ravens team is entirely different with Lamar Jackson under center.

The Ravens will own the clock with the run game and wear down the Browns defense in route to a hard-fought home win.

FINAL SCORE: Ravens 27, Browns 20