NFL Divisional Round Predictions

Updated: Jan 18, 2019

Offenses reigned supreme, and the notion of a quarterback-driven league reiterated itself during Wild Card Weekend.

Two of the NFL's top defenses, the Bears and Ravens bit the dust despite last-second efforts to thwart a loss. The Ravens found new life in the fourth quarter after after three appalling quarters of play but could not complete a comeback due to Lamar Jackson's poor performance.

Unlike Jackson, Nick Foles led the Eagles from the brink of elimination all the way down the field and scored the game-winning touchdown against the number three defense in football. A Cody Parkey missed field goal on the subsequent drive, and the Eagles found themselves celebrating another NFC Divisional Round appearance.

This weekend the NFL's top seeds reenter the fray as the Rams, Saints, Chiefs and Patriots host the winners' of Wild Card Weekend.

Rams' running back Todd Gurley (via Pro Football Focus)

The Los Angeles Rams take on the Dallas Cowboys in a game featuring two of the top running backs in the NFL. Todd Gurley led the NFL touchdowns with 18 for Los Angeles while Ezekiel Elliot led the league in rushing with 1,434 yards.

The two were the driving forces for their offenses this season, but only one has their team favored by seven points by Vegas.

The Rams are favored to beat Dallas by a touchdown this Saturday-an unlikely outcome. Los Angeles ranks second in total offense and points this season, averaging 32.9 points. Behind quarterback Jared Goff and the fifth-ranked passing offense, the Rams have every right to be the favorite on Saturday. The issue is Dallas can shut down their most valuable offensive weapon.

The Cowboys rank fifth in rushing defense having allowed under four yards per carry. Coming off an injury, the Cowboys will key in on Gurley's health and stifle any production from the pro bowler.

Colts' QB Andrew Luck in the 2013 playoffs vs Chiefs (via SB Nation)

The Indianapolis Colts look unstoppable. Winners of four games in a row, Indianapolis has outscored opponents by an average of eight points.

Running through the AFC South division winning Texans twice and shutting out the Cowboys, the Colts are a smart upset pick.

The Colts rank seventh in offense and 11th in defense. Indianapolis is one of the most well-rounded teams in the playoffs and has all the factors to make a deep playoff run if not for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.

The Kansas Chiefs finished the regular season 12-4 and as the number one seed in the AFC. Led by MVP candidate Patrick Mahomes and his league-leading 50 passing touchdowns, the Chiefs can score against any defense. Against top ten defenses this season, Kansas City averaged 36 points. Expect another high scoring game on Saturday.

Kansas City's 31st ranked dense could be their downfall, but the Chiefs are playing at home. The Chiefs finished 7-1 at home this season and have outscored opponents by 10 points. Mahomes and rest of the Chief offensive weapons will play to the home-field advantage and secure the win.

The second game on Sunday features Mahomes' competition for MVP-Saints quarterback Drew Brees.

Eagles' and Saints' quarterback Nick Foles & Drew Brees (via Bleeding Green Nation)

The Saints currently have the best odds to win the Super Bowl at 26 percent, according to CBS Sports.

Offensive stars Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara, Mark Ingram and Michael Thomas lead the Saints in what has been an incredible season for New Orleans.

The Saints offense averages 31.5 points, third best in the NFL. Although not as explosive as the Chiefs, the Saints played efficient football throughout the regular season. New Orleans posted the seventh-best turnover differential-large in part to Drew Brees ranking fifth with just five interceptions.

New Orleans defense has also found itself after struggling early in the year by limiting teams to under 350 per game and finishing the regular season in the top 10 in sacks.

Philadelphia has one key factor to their success-Nick Foles. Foles has been phenomenal since taking over for Carson, and the team has shown the resiliency of their quarterback. The Eagles finished the season by defeating the Rams and Texans to sneak into the playoffs and started their playoffs run by traveling to Chicago to take down the Bears.

The Eagles are hot and their number three ranked postseason defense will look to carry over the success into New Orleans. A large part of Philadelphia's success came in part to playing in frigid Chicago. This Sunday, traveling to Mercedes Benz Superdome where the Saints finished 6-2 on the year, both losses being season opener and closer, likely spells the end for Foles and the Eagles' luck.

The early game on Sunday pits two future Hall of Fame quarterbacks against each other in a matchup between the Los Angeles Chargers and New England Patriots.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS VS. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Tom Brady and Philip Rivers (via thesunbest)

Tom Brady and Philips Rivers have a long history against each other that leans in Brady's favor. The two have also faced off in the playoffs twice with Brady coming out on top in both games as well.

History may be on the Patriots side but this Sunday, Rivers has the best opportunity to unseat Brady in their last possible meeting.

The Chargers are arguably the best team in football and have proven that claim all year by going 7-1 on the road. Led by Philip Rivers, Los Angeles averages 27.7 points on the road have defeated four top ten defenses during the regular season. The Chargers last victory came against the number one ranked defense of the Baltimore Ravens as Los Angeles put up 23 points.

Chargers defense during Wild Card victory over the Ravens (via Sports Illustrated)

On the other side of the field will be the New England Patriots, who went a perfect 8-0 at home this season. Although successful, New England played one team over .500 at the time of their meeting. The Patriots during the second half of the season but have looked vulnerable and downright exhausted at times.

Gronkowski looks like a hobbled form of his old self and has contributed a career-low 47 receptions and three touchdowns when playing double-digit games since his rookie season.

Even Brady has shown inaccuracy and the inability to hit deep targets. Brady ranks 13th in the NFL when it comes to plays over 40 yards and his 65.8 ranks 19th in completion percentage.

The Patriots are old and have no real threat on offense to use against the Chargers ninth-ranked defense. New England does play noticeably better at home averaging 32.8 points per game but falter in the fact of having no receiver with over 80 receptions (unless running back James White's 87 are taken into account) or 900 yards.

Patriots' running back James White (via orlandoweekly)

New England's offense, when stacked up against the Chargers defense, has little hope of succeeding on Sunday. The Patriots' reliability on short slant passes and out-routes will be a walk in the park for Los Angeles to deal with.

The Patriots' defense is also a liability as they are the 21st ranked unit in the league. Allowing the 11th most passing yards per game, Philip Rivers and the top tier offensive weapons of Los Angele will feast on New England.

Keenan Allen and Mike Williams combined for 140 receptions, 16 touchdowns and 1,860 yards. An elite duo on the outside, joined by pro bowl running back Melvin Gordon, will cause all sorts of trouble for New England's subpar defense.

A battle of veteran quarterbacks on the tail end of their careers will give fans a hopeful classic. Philip Rivers of the Chargers desperately needs a Super Bowl win, let alone appearance, to cement himself as a first ballot Hall of Famer while Brady wants to notch another ring on his already illustrious belt.

Verdict:

The Patriots have the better coach and quarterback in Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. Unfortunately, their era-defining reign looks to be about over and a loss to Los Angeles will kick off the beginning of the end.

The Chargers are simply a better team. While New England's offense ranks fifth in the NFL, the Patriots lack the offensive fire powers to pick apart the number eight defense of the Chargers.

Los Angeles has the elite weapons on all facets of offense and will get an even bigger boost with tight end Hunter Henry expected to make his season debut on Sunday.

New England cannot be overlooked for their past playoff and home success. Tom Brady has built an entire career's worth of stats in the playoffs and his six Super Championship have some labeling him as the greatest of all time. This season feels different though.

New England looks tired and worn. The Patriots do not play nor feel like a number two seed. Los Angeles, on the other hand, carries the title of underdog proudly and his a 2017 Eagles feel to them.

FINAL SCORE: Chargers 27, Patriots 23