The NFC South is the most competitive division in the NFL hands down. The Buccaneers aside, the South was the only division to have three teams with at least 10 wins. The Saints, Falcons and Panthers have shared time at atop of the South and all have appeared in a Super Bowl in the last nine years.
Week 1 has come and gone. Upsets were had and the Buccaneers sit in first place. Blink and you will miss it though because the Saints, Falcons, and Panthers are all geared up for another run at an NFC division and conference championship.
MVP's Matt Ryan and Cam Newton along with Drew Brees are set for a fight to the finish and might even face one another in the playoffs when all things are said and done.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
The reigning NFC South Champions, New Orleans Saints, were one "Minneapolis Miracle" away from a NFC Championship game appearance. A season that ended on a negative note did show promise for the future. A very bright future.
According Si.com, prior to week one the Saints had the best odds to win the Super Bowl with betting odds at +1600. Sports Illustrated has not updated the odds after the Saints 48-40 loss to the Buccaneers this past Sunday.
Speaking of the loss, the Saints defense disappeared allowing a total of 529 yards and 8.5 yards per play. No sacks, interceptions or turnovers were record by a team that ranked within the top 10 in each category last season. Don't expect many more games like week one.
The Saints started last year 0-2 and then went on to win eight consecutive games. The defense shined in those eight victories holding teams under 14 points five times. This is a team that has the personnel to rattle off eight straight wins again in 2018.
MVP hopeful Drew Brees leads a high powered offense that features reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year Alvin Kamara and two other Pro Bowlers.
One of those pro bowlers, Mark Ingram won't be available till week four which gives Alvin Kamara a chance to prove he can be a three down back in the NFL. The other pro bowler, Michael Thomas, is one of the most dangerous weapons on the outside. The third year receiver has already set a NFL record with 194 receptions in his first two years in the league.
The Saints had the second ranked offense in the NFL in 2017, expect the same type of performance in 2018.
Verdict:
What happened to the Saints in week one was a mirror of happened to them last season which led to a NFC Divisional round appearance.
New Orleans is many's pick to win the Super Bowl and betting against them would be foolish. Drew Brees is on a pace unlike no other throwing for over 4,000 yards in 12 straight seasons. Expect Drew Brees to be on top of his game throughout 2018.
Along with Brees, Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas will remain elite threats in the backfield and on the outside. When running back Mark Ingram returns from suspension, the Saints offense will become even more threatening.
Marshon Lattimore and the rest of the Saints defense had a bad week one but with a week two match-up against Cleveland, New Orleans has a good chance to get their first win, sack, interception and turnover.
Week two will begin the Saints meteoric rise to the top of the NFC and NFL. A tough stretch from week 9-12 will force the Saints hand but they will ultimately come out as victors. A 13-3 record and the number one seed in he NFC is a great way to follow up a disappointing end to 2017 and begin a deep playoff run in 2018.
CAROLINA PANTHERS
Can Newton is one the most dynamic quarterbacks in the NFL. His ability to pass and be a formidable runner makes Newton nearly unstoppable. The former MVP already has the NFL record for rushing touchdowns by a quarterback through seven seasons. The Panthers will have to rely on Newton for any hope to have a successful 2018.
Christian McCaffrey will have to step up in the backfield with veteran Johnathan Stewart now in New York. McCaffrey's rookie season proved he can be a versatile player for Carolina rushing for 485 yards and catching 86 passes for a total of seven touchdowns. It remains uncertain if McCaffrey can be a three down back and with unproven backups, Carolina may want to divvy up touches to keep McCaffrey's legs fresh.
Luke Kuechly leads the defense which improved the front seven by bringing in Dontari Poe. Along with Poe, Kawann Short and Shaq Thompson return to round out a defense that ranked seventh last season according to NFL.com.
The secondary leaves some room for improvement with no player reaching more than three interceptions. Without a lock-down type corner, the Panthers will need the front seven to step up against elite offenses like New Orleans and Philadelphia.
Verdict:
A week one victory over the Cowboys has the Panthers headed in the right direction. A NFC South title in mind, the Panthers will play the Falcons on the road this week in what should be one of the better games on the docket for week 2 as long as Atlanta can show some life on offense.
Cam Newton can make any throw and run on any defense. The knock on Cam is his consistency. Some errant throws and off games scattered throughout the season cost Carolina games in 2017 and the same will happen in 2018.
Losing their first game on Oct. 14 against the Redskins is nothing to be ashamed of considering what should be a 4-1 record at that point. Another loss the week after to the Eagles makes it 4-2 but a bounce back games versus the Buccaneers should get things back on track in week nine.
Week 10 all comes down to if Le'Veon Bell is back for Pittsburgh but right now the entire NFL is under the assumption he won't thus another win for Carolina.
Rounding out the season with a two losses in three weeks won't put a damper on what should be another good season for the Panthers. 10-6 and a playoff appearance for Carolina sounds like a good 2018, let's just hope the defense can add another layer and the offense can figure out a formidable backup for Christian McCaffrey.
ATLANTA FALCONS
What happened to the Atlanta Falcons? Two years removed from a Super Bowl appearance, one that should have resulted in a win, and this team feels different.
Offensive Coordinator Kyle Shanahan left for San Francisco before the beginning of last season and the offense has taken a step back. A 10-6 record in 2017 would not show a decline but decreasing offensive stats will.
In 2016 with Kyle Shanahan calling the plays, Atlanta ranked second in the league in total offense according to NFL.com. Atlanta led the league in points with 540, second in yards per game with 415.8, and won the turnover battle with a +11. Atlanta offense was elite under Kyle Shanahan which played a large part in their Super Bowl run. The 2017 Falcons were a different team.
In 2017 under new Offensive Coordinator Steven Sarkisian, Atlanta took a massive step back. The Falcons went from averaging 33.8 points a game in 2016 to only 22.1 last season. The offense was inconsistent which led to a drop off in stats for former MVP Matt Ryan and especially receiver Julio Jones.
Jones played only 14 games in 2016, two less than he played in 2017, but scored three more touchdowns, averaged more yards per catch and per game. This includes getting 19 less targets. The bottom line is Steve Sarkisian is not utilizing Jones the he should.
Did you see week one? The Falcons attempted five passing plays in the redzone during week one. Julio Jones was targeted for three of them while making no receptions. The Falcons lost 18-12 to the Eagles. Smarter play calling and a Julio Jones touchdown changes the headline from "Falcons get wings clipped" to "Falcons soar over defending Champs".
The Falcons are now 0-1 and are also down three key players making a week two victory even harder. Running back Devonta Freeman, linebacker Deion Jones, and safety Keanu Neal have been ruled out for Atlanta's week two game against Carolina. Both Jones and Neal have been placed on IR with Neal ruled out for the remainder of the season with a knee injury.
A weakened defense and an inconsistent offense could lead to an eventual third place finish for Atlanta in 2018.
Verdict:
Atlanta's weakness is obvious and it is not a player on the field. It is Offensive Coordinator Steve Sarkisian. He does not how to bring the most out of the elite style of weapons Atlanta has.
Julio Jones should be a redzone goldmine while Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman should be running wild on defenses like they did just two years ago.
Talent alone the Falcons sit near the top in the NFL but talent is not everything. Schemes and systems play an even bigger roles. Atlanta does not have the system for another deep playoff run. They also have a thin defense due to injury.
Atlanta will finish 9-7 in 2018. Talent will win the Falcons multiple games but wont be enough to reach the playoffs. Falcon fans should be calling for Sarkisian's job for seasons end.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
A surprising 48-40 week one victory over the Saints has Tampa Bay fans excited for the rest of 2018. Well, they shouldn't be. The Buccaneers have won in week one three years in a row from 2016-2018.
In that time, the Bucs have only finished over .500 once and still missed the playoffs. Now Tampa Bay has turned to Ryan Fitzpatrick with Jameis Winston serving a three game suspension.
The last time Ryan Fitzpatrick led a team to a winning season was 2015 with the Jets. Fitzpatrick is now 35 and in a tougher division. The hype won't last long and neither will the Bucs winning season.
Fitzpatrick is a solid number two quarterback who can keep a team in games when the starter is out but has never been the guy.
Did I mention he want to Harvard?
Anyways, Tampa Bay's ownership has bought into Jameis Winston. Whether that is the right decision (it's not) is a topic for a different day but let us be honest, when Winston comes back he will be the starter once again.
In his career Winston has never looked like a franchise quarterback. In fact, his inability to win games and his risk taking has only held Tampa Bay back. Winston's career 18-27 record and 44 interceptions, which ties him for second since 2015, make him one of the leagues worst starters. Winston does not have the cleanest resume but did show growth in 2017.
CBS Sports Ryan Wilson wrote, “In 2017, he [Winston] set career highs in completion (63.8), yards per attempt (7.9) and passer rating (92.2), and ranked 11th in total value among all quarterbacks, just behind Matthew Stafford and Alex Smith..."
Mike Evans and De'Sean Jackson still anchor the outside for whoever is under center. Last season the two of them led the way for the Bucs and the second ranked receiving core in the NFL. Evans and Jackson alone cannot win games for Tampa Bay though but additions on defense can help improve upon last years win total
Jason Pierre-Paul and Vinny Curry bring a combined 81.5 career sacks, 11.5 last year, to defense that ranked dead last in 2017. The Bucs also drafted Washington defensive tackle Vita Vea in hopes he can play next to Gerald McCoy and help aid the weakest pass rush in all of football.
Tampa Bay improved at every position that was a detriment last season. Only time will tell if those additions can boost the Buccaneers place in the NFC South standings.
Verdict:
The Buccaneers season all depends the defense. The offense with Winston will have its ups and downs. They will put up around 21 points per game but will not win the turnover game. That is where the defense has to step up.
Seventeen teams outscored the Bucs last season and Tampa Bay's defense gave up the 10th most points. The Buccaneers ended 2017 where they should have been, in last place.
2018 will be the same story but with a worse record. An upgraded defensive line and running game should do wonders for the Bucs, if only they didn't have the fourth hardest schedule in all of football.
Outside of their division, Tampa Bay will face the Eagles, Steelers, Bears, 49ers, Bengals, Redskins, Ravens, and Cowboys who are all possible playoff contenders. A 4-12 record suits the Bucs as they will play 11 teams that will finish around or over .500 this season.
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