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Does Kaepernick Deserve a Second Chance?


"I am not going to stand up to show pride in a flag for a country that oppresses black people and people of color."

Eric Reid and Colin Kaepernick's anthem protest (via getty images)

Colin Kaepernick is perhaps the most controversial, polarizing and divisive sports figure of the 21st century. His national anthem protest caused massive outrage and has been a continuous talking point in the mainstream media.


One of the outcomes of Kaepernick's protests was alleged collusion by NFL owners to keep the former quarterback out of the league. Those allegations raised even more questions of the NFL’s stance on social justice, which led to players all around the league raising fists and kneeling in solidarity with Kaepernick.


Kaepernick owned headlines for almost two years with many commentators and players debating whether he should get another shot as a starting quarterback.


Fox Sports analyst Colin Cowherd criticized Kaepernick for letting the story get out of hand and hiding behind a twitter account. Cowherd also stated he had no problem with Kaepernick's protest but remained heavily critical of the former quarterback.


However, not everyone has been critical of Kaepernick and some teams have shown interest in the former San Francisco 49er.


The Denver Broncos were close to trading for Kaepernick in 2016 but the two could not agree to a pay cut, according to John Elway, the team's general manager.


Broncos' GM John Elway (via ligados32.com)

"I said this a while ago: Colin had his chance to be here," Elway said. "We offered him a contract. He didn't take it."


Denver was not the only team interested in Kaepernick as the Baltimore Ravens reached out in 2017. The Ravens, in need of an upgrade at quarterback, would have signed Kaepernick if it had not been for his girlfriend, according to Hall of Fame linebacker and Ravens' all-time great Ray Lewis.

In an interview with Showtime's "Inside the NFL", Lewis explains why he thought Kaepernick was never signed.


Image via CBSSports.com

Kaepernick's girlfriend and radio host, Nessa Diab, posted a message on social media directed towards Lewis and Raven's owner Steve Bisciotti with the caption "Django."


The purpose for Diab's post was to compare Lewis and Bisciotti to a slave and master type of relationship.



The repercussion of Diab's actions directly effected Kaepernick's chances to land a job in the NFL.


Since the Ravens, no other teams have reached out to the free-agent and a collusion lawsuit against NFL owners presumably put the nail in the coffin to Kaepernick's career.


Former teammate and fellow anthem protester, Eric Reid will reportedly not drop his lawsuit against the NFL despite signing a contract with the Carolina Panthers over two months ago.


The Reid signing has raised rumors of a possible Kaepernick return and players among the league have added fuel to the fire.


Philadelphia Eagles' safety Malcolm Jenkins doubled down on his support for Kaepernick and hinted at a possible destination for the free-agent quarterback.


"I can turn on the tape this week of our opponent and see that Colin Kaepernick deserves a job," Jenkins told reporters.


Jenkins was referencing Jacksonville Jaguars' quarterback Blake Bortles, who's poor play got him benched during a week seven match-up against the Houston Texans. Bortles' has struggled this season and is on pace for double-digit interceptions while leading the Jaguars to a 3-8 record.


Kaepernick could surely outperform Bortles, right? Remove the anthem protest, the "cops are pigs" socks, Diab's tweet and focus on Kaepernick's play. The question is now, is Colin Kaepernick a good enough quarterback to play in the NFL?


Colin Kaepernick in 2016 (no copyright intended)

The last time fans saw Colin Kaepernick under center was 2016 when he started 11 games for the 49ers. Going 1-10 and winning his lone game versus the Rams in week 15, Kaepernick was a shell of his former self. A shoulder injury kept him sidelined for the majority of the off-season and when he returned, Kaepernick was smaller and seemed to have lost muscle mass.


Kaepernick Then vs. Now (via Stack)

Even with the noticeable physical differences, Kaepernick's 2016 stats were on par with his career averages. The problem is Kaepernick is held to the standard of his career highlights.


The 2012-2014 seasons were the pinnacle years in Kaepernick's career. He led the Niners to a 25-14 record, including two playoff appearances and one Super Bowl loss. Kaepernick was marketed as the next big thing and led the charge of the new-age quarterback that included Russell Wilson and Andrew Luck.


In the three years, Kaepernick was a dominating force and arguably the best dual-threat quarterback in the NFL. Kaepernick averaged a 60.4 completion percentage, 3,319 total scrimmage yards and 21 total touchdowns.


In 2013 and '14, Kaepernick was voted the number 81 overall player in the annual NFL top 100 poll voted on by active players in the league.


Colin Kaepernick was explosive and one of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL. He stood toe-to-toe with Aaron Rodgers and knocked off Tom Brady at home. Kaepernick gashed top NFL defenses and made the read-option popular in the league.

Kaepernick is no longer that quarterback. In the subsequent years, Kaepernick played 21 games and only started 19. His record in those games was 3-16.


The entirety of the blame does not fall on Kaepernick as San Francisco was in the midst of a complete roster overhaul including a coaching change.


During the 2015 off-season, the 49ers had one of the worst five-month stretches in NFL history. San Francisco fired head coach Jim Harbaugh, who was pivotal to Kaepernick's success, lost five former all-pro players and let the team's second-leading receiver walk in free agency.


The odds were not in Kaepernick's favor and the then 28-year old had to make do with what the front office gave him. The new roster was among the league's worst and it showed. San Francisco ranked 31st in total offense according to the NFL.com. Kaepernick could not save San Francisco and failed to do so by leading the Niners to the 29th ranked passing offense.


2015 was Kaepernick's worst season by far. He completed 59 percent of his passes for a total of 1,871 yards from scrimmage and seven total touchdowns in nine games. Kaep was not his usual self and it carried over into 2016.


In his final season, Kaepernick improved his stats as he played in three more games than he did in 2015. Starting in 11 of those games, Kaepernick threw for 2,241 yards and ran for 468 more. He totaled 18 touchdowns utilizing his dual-threat archetype. He was also efficient while passing the ball with a 4:1 touchdown to interception ratio. Kaepernick finished his final season with a 90.7 quarterback rating, according to profootballreference.com, the third highest of his career.


Kaepernick soon opted-out of a guaranteed job and hit the open market for the first time in his career. His phone was quiet and for months speculation circulated of where the quarterback would land. He never got the call, but a video surfaced via ESPN of Kaepernick working out which caught the media's eye.


The video posted eight months ago seemed to be a sign Kaepernick was ready for an NFL return. It is now November and halfway through the 2018 NFL season, he is still unemployed.


Recent quarterback play in the league has reignited the "Kaep is better" narrative among media members and fans.



Nathan Peterman played in eight games as a member of the Buffalo Bills from 2017-2018. Peterman started half of those games, including two this season.


In his eight career games, only one stat of Peterman's stood out. Peterman threw nine interceptions in his first seven games and eleven in his first 95 attempts.


Peterman's first career start was also a disaster as he threw five picks in the first half. Colin Kaepernick never threw more than five interceptions in a game and never threw more than eight interceptions in a season.


Peterman may be the extreme example of a terrible quarterback but what about another quarterback with a history of winning?


Blake Bortles and Colin Kaepernick have eerily similar careers. Both have led their teams to deep playoff runs and both have come out losers on final drives in the playoffs. Both players are even on the "similar players page" on profootballreference.com.


The difference between the two is current NFL players back Kaepernick and have been vocal about his return while Bortles has little support from his own team.


Bortles looked awful in a week seven loss, which saw him benched. After the game, loquacious defensive back Jalen Ramsey hinted at distrust with his quarterback.

Jaguars' QB Blake Bortles (via The Ringer)

“You all walk in here, you all see how it is in here, you all see how we vibe with each other, you all see how we vibe towards the coaches, you all see how it is,” Ramsey said. “It is no secret what’s going on here right now.”


Ramsey was not the only player to call out Bortles as Eagles' all-pro safety Malcolm Jenkins stated his disdain for Bortles in an interview with USA Today.


“I’ve always maintained at every chance I get to say Colin Kaepernick can start at this,” Jenkins told reporters. "Colin Kaepernick deserves a job. I can turn on the tape this week of our opponent and see that Colin Kaepernick deserves a job."


Fans have been clamoring for Kaepernick to take Bortles' job for years and the stats are on Kaepernick's side. Kaepernick and Bortles have essentially the same career completion percentage but the latter's interception percentage is double Kaepernick's.


In 35 of his 73 games, Bortles has finished with an equal or higher number of interceptions compared to touchdowns. The Jaguars' quarterback is a detriment to the team with his inane ability to give up points. Bortles has thrown 13 regular season pick-sixes- a total of 78 points handed to opposing teams.


Colin Kaepernick may not be able to start on the majority of teams but statistically, he outranks the bulk of NFL backup quarterbacks. He poises the ability to control the ball and limit turnovers. Since Bortles became a starting quarterback, he has thrown an interception in 13 games that have been decided by one point.


Stats prove Kaepernick should be in the NFL but maybe the former 49ers' asking price is too high?


According to Dan Graziano of ESPN, Kaepernick's desired salary was between $9 million and $10 million, with a starting opportunity. Starting in the NFL might be hard for a quarterback who sat out the last two season but a $9 million contract is reasonable.


If Kaepernick was signed, his $9 million would rank 24th in annual quarterback salary. The only other backup quarterbacks above him would be Josh McCown and Tyrod Taylor.


Twelve starting quarterbacks would make less than Kaepernick, two of them being Carson Wentz and Patrick Mahomes-both have been MVP favorites the past two seasons.


A $9 million salary is unreasonable for Kaepernick but the statistical evidence proves he deserves a chance. Collusion or not, the now the 31-year-old can benefit plenty of NFL teams. If Kaepernick was to lower his asking price to $6 million, a team may be willing to take a chance on the current free agent as his contract would rank closer to the majority of current NFL starters.


Colin Kaepernick in Super Bowl 48 "Kaepernicking" after a touchdown (via Twitter)

Does Kaepernick deserve a second chance? The stats say yes, the salary says no.


In the words of the now Nike spokesperson, "Believe in something. Even if it means sacrificing everything."


*preview image credited to The Society Pages

 

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