Four different teams have won the AFC South in the last 10 seasons making it one of the hardest divisions to predict. Each team has a serviceable quarterback, some better than others.
In 2017 two of the divisions best quarterbacks were injured, Andrew Luck and Deshaun Watson, allowing the Jacksonville Jaguars defense to prey on inconsistent backups and claim the AFC South title.
That won't happen this year with both Luck and Watson returning. Only time will tell how healthy they are upon returning from injury but if the past is any proof, the division is up for grabs in 2018.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
One possession away from a Super Bowl appearance the Jacksonville Jaguars were ultimately defeated by the New England Patriots 24-20. 2017 was no let down though. A young defense led by arguably the best cornerback in the game, Jalen Ramsey, has the Jaguars in prime position to repeat last seasons success and even improve on it.
The outspoken Ramsey has been busy this offseason telling every player, especially quarterbacks, what he really thinks about them. Rightfully so after the Jaguars ranked top five in every defensive category besides rushing in which they finished 11th in the league. Ramsey and the rest of the nicknames "Sacksonville" Jaguars know they are the best defense in the league but the defense cannot win you every game.
The offense led by quarterback Blake Bortles ranked 17th in passing and 18th in receiving in 2017. Not to mention Jacksonville lost three top of their top receivers to either free agency or injury. Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns signed with Chicago and Dallas while Marquis Lee will miss the entire season with a knee injury. Not good news for team hoping to reach a Super Bowl but luckily Leonard Fournette gives hope out of the backfield.
The former LSU running back helped lead the Jaguars to the league's best rushing offense in 2017 and with the addition offensive lineman Andrew Norwell, Fournette should have an even better 2018.
Verdict:
Beginning the season with five out of eight games at home makes racking up wins easier for the Jaguars. Jacksonville should be able to start 2018 with a record of 6-2, only losing to the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles and New England Patriots. The second half of the season proves tougher.
Home games against the Redskins and Steelers will come down to the wire. Both games could go either way but without a true number one, two, or three receiver the offense will have a hard time moving the ball down field. Divisional games at Indianapolis, Tennessee and Houston won't be easy either especially with Luck and Watson back under center for their respective teams.
Jacksonville will finish 9-7 and will still remain atop the AFC South for one more season but will need to look for top tier receivers to match other high powered offenses.
HOUSTON TEXANS
Prior to injury, Texans' quarterback Deshaun Watson was widely considered to the Offensive Rookie of the Year and even a MVP candidate. Watson set the world on fire with his arm, connecting on deep throw after deep throw, and used his legs to evade pressure and extend plays. He looked like a franchise quarterback and a future star. An ACL tear during practice would end his season in October and the Texans' playoff hopes as well.
A 3-3 record is nothing to brag about when it comes to Deshaun Watson but the skill he possesses and the stat sheet show hope for a bright future. Returning fully healthy this season, Watson will have no limitations. A great sign for Texan fans. Along with Watson, JJ Watt is returning from injury as well and is expected to be 100 percent before the midway point of the season.
Watson seems physically and mentally prepared for the long season ahead. In an interview with the Washington Post Watson shared his thoughts.
“I don’t even think about it,” Watson said of his surgically repaired knee following practice. “When I’m on the field, I’m locked in, focused on my job. I try to have a positive play and try to get points on the board.”
It would be unfair to judge the Texans offense considering Watson only started six out of the seven games he played in 2017. We do know Watson averaged 242 passing yards and 2.7 touchdowns per game. If Watson had started all 16 games, he would have finished the season with 3,872 passing yards and and 43 touchdowns. Video game type numbers that would rank him tenth in passing yards and first in touchdowns making him a nightmare for opposing defenses.
Verdict:
Houston has the NFL's easiest schedule according cbssports.com and should find themselves in the Wild Card hunt throughout the season.
Opening the season at the Patriots and Titans will leave them at 1-1 while losing three consecutive away games to the Colts, Jaguars, and Broncos will leave Houston 4-5 through nine games. The second half of the season is where the Texans will make their run winning five of their last six games against the Titans, Browns, Colts, Jets and Jaguars.
An 8-8 record fits the Texans as they still have holes to fill especially in the backfield and secondary. DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller will have tremendous seasons catching passes from Watson for a hopeful 16 games and see themselves as a top receiving core by the seasons end.
TENNESSEE TITANS
A come from behind victory to upset the Kansas Chiefs last year in the Wild Card round was icing on the cake for the 9-7 Tennessee Titans. Although the season was back and forth, Tennessee proved to be fighting team and sneaked their way in the playoffs.
The Titans offense ranked 23rd and defense ranked 20th in the NFL in 2017, nowhere near a playoff caliber team. Just like the Jaguars, Tennessee's win total will decrease in 2018. A 9-7 record will be hard to replicate even with the second easiest schedule in the upcoming season.
Andrew Luck is back for the Colts meaning a season split is likely and Deshaun Watson is healthy again which leans Tennessee more towards being swept by the Texans. Sticking with those being the only differences in their schedule, the Titans will finished below .500 for the first time since 2015.
Marcus Mariota ranked 13th among quarterbacks according to profootballfocus.com. Consistency may not have been on Mariota's side but the ability to make big plays when necessary surely was. It seemed luck was always on Mariota's side during the season and even the Wild Card game.
Luck runs out though and being the 20th ranked quarterback statistically by NFL.com provides evidence the Titans season should have never reached the playoffs.
The retirement of running back DeMarco Murray does put more pressure on Mariota and third year back Derrick Henry to perform but the signing of Dion Lewis will add a dynamic Tennessee did not have last season. Lewis was not the only marquee signing for the Titans during the offseason.
Malcolm Butler signed a five year 61 million dollar deal with Tennessee and brings over elite cornerback talent to go along with pro bowl safety Kevin Byard. The Titans noticeably wanted to improve the defense by hiring new head coach Mike Vrabel who played 14 years in the NFL as a linebacker.
Vrabel made defense a priority by signing the aforementioned Butler and drafting linebackers Rashaan Evans and Harold Landry III with the teams first two picks in the 2018 NFL Draft. Due to this the offense will likely take a back seat.
Verdict:
Tennessee will be competitive all year but lose close games throughout the season. Expect the Colts and Titans to split the series due to Andrew Luck being back on the field and Deshaun Watson to out duel Mariota twice. Those three losses alone bring the Titans to a logical 6-10 on the season finishing 2018 where 2017 should have ended as well.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Neck beard is back and so are the Colts winning ways! Okay, let's not get ahead of ourselves. Andrew Luck, when healthy, is a top 10 quarterback in the NFL. The only problem is, he has not been healthy in almost two seasons.
Luck covered up many of the Colts on the field problems but by not playing, it put emphasis on how bad the Colts truly were on the field.
The Colts still have no running game, although a 34 year old Frank Gore was a spectacle to watch last season as he reached 1,200 yards from scrimmage for a record 12th time. Gore is in Miami now and now the South Florida product, Marlon Mack is the guy.
Mack averaged 1,203 yards at USF but has not proven himself to be a three down back in the NFL yet. Mack is best served as a change of pace style back, not a number one for the time being. With no running game and only one 1,000 yard receiver in TY Hilton, it will be long grueling season for Indianapolis.
The addition of tight end Eric Ebron paired with Jack Doyle does help take some attention off Hilton and the rest of the receiving group. The Colts also decided to give Andrew Luck the protection he deserves by drafting guard Quenton Nelson the number six overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft.
The addition of Nelson alone moves the Colts up to 17th ranked O-line according to profootballfocus.com, up eight spots from 2017.
Malik Hooker and Jabaal Sheard will continue to lead the third worst defense in the league according to NFL.com but expect improvement as the offense will be on the field longer and put up more point throughout the season due to Luck's prowess under center.
Verdict:
The Indianapolis Colts will finish in last place for the first time since Peyton Manning sat out the entire 2011 season with a neck injury. The Colts will somehow win five games taking down two rookie led teams (Jets and Bills) and splitting the season series with division rivals Houston and Tennessee. Luck and Colts will also pull victory out against a weak Miami Dolphins team at home. Expect Luck to return to form but resting late in the season to showcase Jacoby Brissett for trade bait in the offseason.